Phillies @ Cincinnati Reds
Well so far in this 2016 season the Phillies are nothing if
not consistent. In both games against
the Reds the Phillies got seven men on base in about thirty-three plate
appearances and scored two runs. They
got outstanding efforts by their starting pitching only to see it washed away
by abysmal relief pitching. It’s almost
like the majority of this team doesn’t have major league talent. Who would have guessed?!
Let’s start off with the good news. Aaron Nola, the first of the Young Arms of
the Future to make the club, had an outstanding game. He was tested early when Reds third baseman
Eugenio Suarez launched a first inning home run to left field to cut the Phils
lead to one. But, to Nola’s credit, he
didn’t panic. He got All-World first
baseman Joey Votto to ground out routinely to third and escaped the inning when
Devin Mesoraco lined out to center (hat tip to Odubel Herrera for covering
about three miles in the outfield to make a great catch to help out his pitcher). For the next five innings Nola was in
complete control, striking out six and allowing only three hits. The vaunted middle of the Reds lineup of
Votto, Mesoraco, and Jay Bruce went a combined 1 for 9. Nola finished the sixth inning with just 78
pitches, putting himself in prime position to go at least one and maybe two
more innings. In the seventh, though, he
showed signs of tiring when both Bruce and Scott Scheblar worked 3-0
counts. But once again Nola showed some
guts on the mound and some promise for his future when he settled down and
struck both men out. Ivan De Jesus then
grounded out weakly to second and Nola left the game giving up one run on four
hits while striking out eight. More importantly he held onto a slim one-run
lead.
Now for the bad news.
The Phillies bullpen is garbage.
The only one with any credentials is David Hernandez, and he was coming
off a game in which he set up a late game comeback for the Reds by walking two
and giving up a double to the only three batters he faced. In last night’s game Hernandez was thrown
right back into the fire. He performed
admirably, retiring all three batters he faced.
Now, he did get to pitch to Adam Duvall, Billy Hamilton, and Zack
Cozart, none of which have a career OBP higher than .287, so he wasn’t exactly
facing Murderer’s Row or anything. But
he did his job and got the Phillies to the ninth with the lead.
But then came Dalier Hinojosa to tear the wheels right off
the apple cart. Hinojosa is a Cuban defector
that made his MLB debut last season with the Boston Red Sox at the age of
twenty-nine. In twenty-four innings with
the Red Sox and Phillies last year he had an ERA of 0.73. Hey, that’s pretty good! Great, even! The bad news comes when you look
beyond his small sample size. His BABIP
was an unsustainable .212. And it may
look good that he struck out 22.6% of batters last year, but that rate would
place him as the 70th best strikeout reliever in baseball. Oh and he walks guys like he’s at a cancer
research 5K fundraiser. For all intents
and purposes he’s Edward Mujica (who is now pitching in Lehigh Valley) or John
Axford (who was demoted from Milwaukee’s closer in 2013 and has since played on
six teams in four years). Not exactly
the guy that you want pitching in high leverage situations. But this is the Phillies, after all, and they
still haven’t quite got passed the
point where a mid-90s fastball and a 0.73 ERA impresses the hell out of
them. Last night Hinojosa do like
Hinojosa does.
The top of the ninth started with a Suarez single. Then Joey Votto, who honestly looked
frustrated and lost all night for whatever reason, hit a high pop-up to left for
the first out. So far it’s not so
bad. He got through the biggest threat
in the lineup and needed two more outs to get the Phillies that elusive first win. But then Mesoraco hit a ball down the third
base line that he couldn’t have placed better if he physically walked out there and
dropped it. Now it’s first and second
with one out and Jay Bruce stepping to the plate. Okay still not time to panic. But then Bruce scorched a 0-1 fastball
between Freddy Galvis and Maikel Franco, though luckily he hit it right at
Cedric Hunter in left, which only allowed the runners to advance one base. Bases loaded with one out. Okay time to panic! Scheblar stepped in and worked a 2-2
count. After he fouled off a belt-high
94-MPH fastball, Hinojosa threw the exact
same pitch in the exact same location!!!
Major league hitters, even ones named Scott Scheblar, don’t miss when
you throw them the same pitch twice in a row.
And guess what? Scheblar didn’t
miss. A long double to left scored two
runs and the game was over. Phils lose
again.
The talk last night was that the bullpen was to blame for
the Phillies lose. Yes, Hinojosa did a
god-awful job. But the emotional rush of
a walk off and recency bias cover up some glaring holes on this Phillies
team. Like how about how the Phillies
only got five base runners after the first inning? Or how about the Phillies going 1 for 9 with
a runner on? Or how about Cesar
Hernandez, Freddy Galvis, and Darin Ruf, three of the rare guys on this team
actually expected to help the team offensively this year, went a combined 1 for
10 with five strikeouts? Odubel Herrera
and Maikel Franco can’t be expected to provide ALL of the club’s offense this year. Yet the team’s OBP through two games is a
staggering .212. It’s not like they
faced actual aces, either. They faced
two very good, not great pitchers.
As the clunky cliché goes, spring is the time when hope
springs eternal. And even though nobody
in the world thought the Phillies would be anything other than one of the worst
teams in baseball this year, there was a small group that thought this team
could compete for 70-75 wins (cough cough I was one of them cough cough). But man this offense is barren. Hernandez and Galvis are both probably number
eight hitters, yet they filled out the top two spots in last night’s lineup. Yes I know Hernandez had a .339 OBP last
year, but it’s hard to imagine he’ll repeat the accomplishment. And if he doesn’t have a .339 OBP he’s
basically worthless at the plate. Galvis
is most definitely worthless at the plate. Even his
90th percentile projection, the best he can reasonably be expected
to hit, is garbage. The bottom of the
order is a black hole. Only Herrera,
Franco, and Ruf can be expected to contribute positively to the offensive, but
Herrera and Franco are still young and learning how to hit major league
pitching. Franco was fooled three times
last night, grounding out on pitches below his knees. And let’s be honest, I’m being nice including
Ruf on that list.
Where does this leave us?
Well the season can only get better.
Right? Oh God that might not even
be true. Okay okay. Uhhhh.
Let’s just stay calm. Nobody
freak out. In all seriousness the only
thing we have to look forward to this season is watching these guys learn to
become real major league ballplayers.
Wins and losses don’t really matter at all. Nothing has changed from the story we told
ourselves all winter. Franco could become
a monster hitter. Odubel could blossom
into the future leadoff hitter. Tyler
Goeddel could go through some growing pains for most of the season only to have
it click towards the end. Then he’s your
starting left fielder of the future.
And, of course, you have the pitching.
Aaron Nola will be fun to watch every fifth day. Yeah, he’s not as exciting as Cole Hamels was
when he came up, but Nola’s movement on his pitches will baffle hitters all
year. Everything is okay, guys. We knew this was going to happen. Things are still going according to plan. Just enjoy your summer checking in on these
kids learning how to play the game at the highest level. There is a bright future ahead. This team is like a roller coaster just left
the station. Hell, the better simile
might be that this team is still waiting in line to get onto a roller
coaster. Either way, we can see the rise
coming and know that there are beautiful views and a wild ride ahead. Anticipation can be frustrating. Try not to let a bunch of Triple-A reliever
jamokes get you down.
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